The good news for Detroit is there are plenty of tight races in the NL, and the AL powerhouses all still have needs to shore up, so the market can only swing so much. This isn’t a phenomenon unique to this year, but the fragile balance of injuries and performance, in addition to the standings, have made it a clear consideration. If you’re Al Avila, are you looking to get your Fiers deal done now, as he’s coming off a third straight strong start? Or are you playing chicken with a rival executive who isn’t yet buying the righty will keep it up? It’s functionally a stock-market bet.Īnd that’s to say nothing of the same type of gamble the Tigers - and every team - will be making on their own players, like Fiers. From another, the arms race could in fact be driven up, and closing a deal too early may mean a missed opportunity. But which one is more likely to happen now, right before the non-waiver deadline? Predicting either way would be a guess, but it’s not hard to see the impact it could have on the market.įrom one standpoint, it may prove prudent for sellers to act early, while there still appears to be some mystery in the AL playoff race. But if they falter and the Mariners and Astros begin to mirror the AL East situation, Oakland may instead stand pat, or even join the already crowded field of presumed sellers.Īlmost certainly, the team will go through at least one more slump and at least one more surge during the remainder of the season. If the A’s get hot and rip off a win streak, that could add urgency to make an addition - for Oakland, or for the teams they’re chasing. It’s too soon to tell whether a similar timeline could be in play this year, but the aforementioned shortage of true AL contenders could make the timing of trades important this year. Still, he may not be able to match what Liriano’s value would have been, as a lefty and defending world champion, if their numbers were reversed.Ī year ago, the Tigers’ biggest splash came after the July 31 deadline, shipping Verlander to Houston at the waiver trade deadline at the end of August. Mike Fiers may be one antidote, especially as he’s bolstered his team-leading (among qualified starters) 3.65 ERA with three consecutive one-run outings. It’s always possible a team might be willing to take a gamble on Martin’s rebound season, and Liriano will always have some value as a rental lefty, but there has to be at least some consternation over their untimely misfortunes. Instead, Liriano is now coming off a short start in which he was shelled by the Rays, and Martin is on the disabled list. It would have been too strong to say they had hit some kind of jackpot with Liriano’s or Martin’s success, but they were at least looking destined to bring a meaningful return on a low-risk investment. The Tigers’ presumed top rentals are suddenly shrouded in uncertaintyĪfter Francisco Liriano and Leonys Martin got off to impressive starts in Detroit this year, it looked like the Tigers front office might be able to pull off an impressive short-term flip. That could push things one of two ways, or perhaps a little bit in each direction: Fewer contending teams means more sellers, deflating the price on certain players OR, tighter competition among the elites already looking toward October ends up driving an arms race. Outside of that, it’s hard to imagine any team even trying to contend for the playoffs this year - unless Tampa Bay gets some really big ideas after its recent hot stretch. The Angels - once popular upstarts themselves - have faded to just above. The Athletics actually have a better run differential, despite being six games behind the Mariners. Right now, Seattle holds that fifth and final playoff spot in the AL, but a surging, surprising Oakland team is giving chase. And while there’s plenty of incentive for all four of them to add in anticipation of their playoff clashes amongst each other, the traditional group of fringe playoff teams seems to have been limited to the West Division - and even that could change before the deadline. Houston owns baseball’s best run differential by more than 30 runs. The Yankees and Red Sox are battling for the AL East crown, but even the loser should be a good bet for the wild-card game. The Indians, despite having by far the worst record of that bunch, own baseball’s widest division lead at 8.5 games. It’s July 10, but we can already say with confidence that Cleveland, Houston, Boston and the New York Yankees will likely claim four of the five playoff spots in the American League. A few considerations before we plunge in:Ĭould the concentration of AL heavyweights affect the market?
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